The Great Inflation & Equity Duration

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The Great Inflation & Equity Duration

Why the Kailash Equity Duration Tool is a Must Have for Managers

This paper extends on our last piece, The Great Inflation.  Our research indicates investors and asset allocators face a “duration crisis.”  This paper seeks to hammer home:

  • Equities in aggregate have high sensitivity to rates based on history
  • The aggregate duration is heavily skewed by a group of outliers
  • There are still a large number of low duration equities that can help mitigate duration risk for Asset Allocators, Portfolio Managers and Investors

Kailash has spent months working to build a tool to provide credible estimates of equity durations.  For a walk-through on the academic underpinnings and the numerous modifications Kailash employed to calculate Equity Duration, please click hereKailash believes certain equities can help manage duration risk while providing a valuable inflation hedge.

Figure 1 below shows the equity duration for the S&P 500.  Using a constant 6% discount rate over history, the broad S&P 500 Index now has an equity duration of 40 years.  The prior all-time high was at the very peak of the internet bubble when the Index duration hit 43 years.

While Kailash’s proprietary equity duration tool estimates any given security’s sensitivity to interest rate shocks, we find the index figures to highlight the risks of traditional asset allocation strategies.   Kailash first wrote about the dangers in our piece 60/40 Asset Allocation: Buying a Ticket on the Titanic based on the common-sense observation that bonds, at current yields, offer negligible income and enormous risks.  With this new tool, Kailash can now create approximate calculations for any set of US equity funds and bond funds.  

 IN 2000, THE LAST TIME EQUITY DURATIONS HIT 40 YEARS, 5 YEAR TREASURY BONDS YIELDED 6%, TODAY THEY YIELD 1.5%.  Today’s same mix of assets provides a very different risk/return profile than the one suggested by many backwards-looking asset allocation models.  To see how different discount rates impact aggregate equity duration, click here.

Disclaimer

The information, data, analyses, and opinions presented herein (a) do not constitute investment advice, (b) are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not, individually or collectively, an offer to buy or sell a security, (c) are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate, and (d) are subject to change without notice. Kailash Capital, LLC and its affiliates (collectively, “Kailash Capital”) shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information herein may not be reproduced or retransmitted in any manner without the prior written consent of Kailash Capital. In preparing the information, data, analyses, and opinions presented herein, Kailash Capital has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable. Kailash Capital, however, does not perform an audit or seeks independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives. Kailash Capital and its affiliates do not provide tax, legal, or accounting advice. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for tax, legal, or accounting advice. You should consult your tax, legal, and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction. © 2020 Kailash Capital, LLC – All rights reserved.