A monthly, deep dive, and rigorous piece identifying:
Extraordinary Value Spreads, Mispriced Quality, and Behavioral Errors

KCR’s systematic, evidence-based analytical and investment process is driven by the historical record. Our financial faith resides in what the data shows. Human beings have made the same mistakes in slightly different forms again and again for centuries. Stick to a low-cost, tax efficient process and winning is inevitable.

A Tight Labor Market Returns the Upper Hand to American Workers - The always wonderful John Authers put out a recent piece on inflation. Discussing comments out of the UK, he observed, “I cannot remember a central bank of a large, industrialized country being this negative about its own economy.”

At KCR, we believe in solving problems and one of the greatest issues we hear from subscribers is how to compound...

In 1999, Warren Buffett gave a rare explanation of why he felt the stock market would generate poor returns for investors over the long haul. He used simple arithmetic to show that elevated valuations and profit margins made equities vulnerable. The piece was 9 pages, over 4,000 words long, and had a single exhibit.

Protecting & Growing Wealth in the Age of Uncertainty - From 2017 - 2020, speculative trading on predatory apps like Robinhood became a true stock market mania. The catastrophic misallocation of capital was, briefly, a very profitable endeavor. We did not flinch.

A Quick Walk Through the Recent Age of Miracle, Wonder & Other Lies - It has been a wild couple of years for financial statements. And by “wild,” we mean the quality of financial accounting information hit lows we could not have imagined. Let’s start with the basics.

Revisiting KCR’s Long-Running Thesis on the Opportunity in Oil Angst

This piece is designed to add color to our Bear Traders post, which showed the five largest market declines since the 1960s. That piece explained the brutal path to getting back to break-even across the history of bear markets using the S&P 500.

This work was inspired by UCLA Professor Michael Brennan’s efficient autopsy of the dot.com bubble. Published in 2004, the piece broke down the mania that led to the historic bubble in 2000. A misplaced belief in Efficient Markets, agency problems on Wall Street, and weak accounting rules figured large in his work.

The Case for GARP Investing: Summary & Key Points...

Are Some of The Best Blue Chip Stocks in the S&P 500 Financials Sector? In light of our recent pieces, “Debt to EBITDA Ratios: The Spiral Higher Continues” and...

Our recent piece Debt to EBITDA Ratios: The Spiral Higher Continues documented the explosive growth in leverage using aggressive accounting to fund deals. This piece intends to...