Hillenbrand Stock Price = Capital Discipline for Cheap
• We have been proponents of investing in companies that make what you need, not what you want. • Behavioral errors often give investors the feeling that they “missed” a stock after it has risen • KCR believes that Hillenbrand lies at the intersection of two powerful themes we have highlighted: the opportunity in small-cap value stocks and finding growth at a reasonable price
Lottery Ticket Stocks: A Quick Review of Money Losers
Loss Making Companies in the R2500V vs. the R2500G • Our recent paper, Russell 2500 Growth Index, explained that the R25G had record exposure to loss-making stocks vs. its own history and compared to the Russell 2500 Value Index
Market Cap vs. Revenue: The Implications of 20x P/S Ratios
The Chart Below Shows: • the market cap of just software stocks valued at over 10x price to sales is over $6 trillion • that means that software stocks priced at preposterous levels are now worth ~30% of US GDP • KCR thanks Scott McNealy for making investment decisions on stocks valued like this simple
A Good Price to Sales Ratio is Tough to Find in Software Stocks
The Chart Below Shows: • the market cap of just software stocks valued at over 10x price to sales is over $6 trillion • that means that software stocks priced at preposterous levels are now worth ~30% of US GDP • KCR thanks Scott McNealy for making investment decisions on stocks valued like this simple
Quantamental Investing: A Brief Primer on KCR’s Toolkits
In our Chart for the Curious about Apple Computer, we document the challenges faced by investors who follow forecasters. For those seeking compelling evidence based on robust quantitative methods, please see our White Paper The Persistence of Profits. That piece builds on work done by a legendary professor of behavioral finance...
Apple II Flashback: The Fantasy of Predicting the Future
Why is it that some of the most influential CEOs and Fund Managers only predict “exponential returns” and bright futures for some of the market’s most expensive stocks?
AAP Stock Chart: Did You Miss a Profitable Secular Grower?
• The chart shows the performance of aftermarket automotive products supply and distribution firm Advanced Auto Parts, over the last 3 years • Since 2018 the stock has risen over 50% • We have been proponents of investing in companies that make what you need, not what you want, particularly in times like today, as explained in our...
Stocks Most like Enron Today, Free Enron Hat & Summary of Disaster
Remembering the Risks of “The Smartest Guys in the Room”. We recently put out a two-part summary of Bethany McLean and Peter Elkind’s brilliant book The Smartest Guys in the Room. In an earlier piece, we quoted legendary financial historian John Kenneth Galbraith, who quipped that investors’ memories last “...at a maximum, no more than 20 years.” The KCR team agrees.
Glamour Stocks: Investing vs Gambling – 2021 Speculation in Review
2021 has been a terrific year for KCR. For like-minded investors who believe in buying high-quality companies at reasonable prices, 2021 was a much-needed reprieve. We would like to offer our deepest thanks to all of our subscribers and wish you a happy and healthy New Year!
ARKF Dividend vs. XLF Dividend: To Pay or Be Paid
Bloomberg’s Lu Wang wrote a piece on the 7th noting that “....risk-taking traders roared back to life….where frenzied selling eventually gives way to a bounce whose size defies logical expectations.”
Speculators in Stock Markets: The Price of Quick Profits
Bloomberg’s Lu Wang wrote a piece on the 7th noting that “....risk-taking traders roared back to life….where frenzied selling eventually gives way to a bounce whose size defies logical expectations.”
10 Year Rolling Returns: A Warning?
*The chart shows the rolling 10-year period returns since 1800 *Where available we show the Shiller PE peak and trough valuations *The chart shows a reasonably consistent pattern of 10-year runs followed by dismal decades...
