Survivorship Bias Free Stock Data is Critical to Investors
Before we show you how quality and reasonable valuations are the breeding grounds of greatness, let’s talk about a common analytical error. When analyzing stocks and investment strategies, using bias-free data is a basic and critical first step. For a beautiful explanation, we guide you to Teddy Koker, a researcher at MIT’s Lincoln Labs, elegant walk-through, complete with programming instructions. For those interested in a less complex example, this post is for you.
Quantamental Investing: A Brief Primer on KCR’s Toolkits
In our Chart for the Curious about Apple Computer, we document the challenges faced by investors who follow forecasters. For those seeking compelling evidence based on robust quantitative methods, please see our White Paper The Persistence of Profits. That piece builds on work done by a legendary professor of behavioral finance...
Glamour Stocks: Investing vs Gambling – 2021 Speculation in Review
2021 has been a terrific year for KCR. For like-minded investors who believe in buying high-quality companies at reasonable prices, 2021 was a much-needed reprieve. We would like to offer our deepest thanks to all of our subscribers and wish you a happy and healthy New Year!
10 Year Rolling Returns: A Warning?
*The chart shows the rolling 10-year period returns since 1800 *Where available we show the Shiller PE peak and trough valuations *The chart shows a reasonably consistent pattern of 10-year runs followed by dismal decades...
Inflation Assets Presentation Video, Slides & Transcript
Introduction Slide: Inflation Assets, Investing & Managing Equity Duration Note: Video Presentation is at the top of the transcript By way of preview I’m going to try and compress ...
Is Equity Beta Broken?
Beta, or the amount a stock price goes up and down relative to the market, is a popular measure of “risk” Famous investors such as Seth Klarman have observed ...
Macro Aware & The Need for KCR’s Equity Duration Tool
A Critical New Metric to Estimate Risk & Return: KCR does not make macro forecasts, but we are “macro aware” – inflation has never been more topical Our piece ...
Sun Microsystems, The Greatest Quote & The Rise of the Reckless
Sun Microsystems Inc: A Lifetime Lesson in Valuation Market cap of firms trading > 10x price to sales is now +$10 trillion Investors who paid 10x P/S to buy Sun ...
An Investment Strategy for High Quality Firms
If you are saving for retirement, have some investment goals and are looking to buy stocks we believe this chart is for you. Our last two newsletters documented the generational ...
