Specious vs Spurious Correlation
Spurious vs. Specious: The Merriam-Webster dictionary tells us that despite both terms featuring deceptive or deceitful in their respective definitions, there is a surprising difference between “specious” and “spurious.” Spurious, of “spurious correlation” fame, is explained as outwardly similar or corresponding to something without having genuine qualities. Specious adds an element of appeal or allure.
Market Froth Abates: Lessons from a Historical Speculation
KCR is not surprised at the amount of Wall Street shills claiming they can predict the Federal Reserve Chairman’s next moves. Equally unsurprising is the market’s overwhelming interest in how market conditions might shift based on a leveling off or outright reduction in interest rates. The thinking goes like this: the stock market bubble that drove low-quality stocks to unsustainable levels could come roaring back to life if only the Fed would...
KCR Equity’s Best Charts from 2022: All Charts Updated!
We recently posted a year end piece summarizing KCR’s work from 2022. There were so many blistering charts that we broke the recap into two parts. The first, Short Term Stock Speculators Beat a Hasty Retreat, and A Basic Industries Boom & the Return of the Real Economy as the follow-up. When we posted our 2022 year-in-review we highlighted the charts as they were...
ARKK vs. QQQ in the Dot.Com Bust
2020 was a brutal year for KCR. US bonds rose to offensive levels, offering investors a 0.50% yield, while equities soared to valuations above the dot.com peak. Our evidence-based investment process is driven by historical data, algebra, and common sense. By the end of 2020, there was nothing less common than common sense. Basic math's were tossed out the window and replaced by empirically impossible narratives spouted by promotional fund managers and...
A Basic Industries Boom & the Return of the Real Economy
Last week’s piece Short Term Stock Speculators Beat a Hasty Retreat, walked through the blizzard of work we did on the continued collapse of speculatively priced stocks in 2022.Today, we present the best charts on the bullish material we highlighted last year.
Short Term Stock Speculators Beat a Hasty Retreat 2022 Year in Review: Part I
At the end of last year, we posted a piece reviewing our research from 2021. We explained that after a brutal 2020 where we were bombarded by skeptics, ‘21 had been a terrific year for KCR and we expected more in ‘22 based on the data. Thankfully, fortune favors the patient, disciplined, and empirically inclined.
Cash Flow to Stockholders is Defined As: Misleading?
How the Crypto-FTX-Fraud Could be Masking Epic Capital MisallocationAccounting Tools states that cash flow to stockholders is the amount of money a firm pays its equity owners. They explain that “Investors routinely compare the cash flow to stockholders to the total amount of cash flow generated by a business…”
The Mining Investment Boom Nobody Believes
Market Prices Suggest the Movement to a Green Grid Will Fail - Quick piece on some of the market’s cheapest and most unpopular stocks.
The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions
Have Policy-Makers Given Investors a Secular Growth Story for Cyclical Stocks? Our research is empirically based and tends towards places that are uncomfortable and out-of-favor. In 2020, as investors gorged on crypto, loss-making tech and growth stocks of dubious merit..
Small Cap Quality Stocks: The Gift from the Index Fund Complex
Our team believes in inefficient markets, behavioral finance, empirical evidence, and common sense. Having penned brutally simple pieces explaining the risks large cap, large-cap, and small cap index fund owners are taking, our recent exchange with an advocate of index funds was inevitable. The caller was upset.
Small Cap Investing Strategies, Large Caps & Active Management
Welcome everyone, my name is Matt Malgari. Today’s presentation is going to be an update on the bull case for high..
Flush With Cash & the Quick Swing in Sentiment
How the Rotation from Risk On to Risk Off is…Creating Risk - The Oxford University Press tells us that the principal meaning of being “flush with cash” is having a lot of money, usually for a short period of time. The last part of the definition is interesting considering investors’ newfound interest in holding abundant piles of cash. A recent article headlined with “Retail money market funds inflows are the highest in 30 years as investors seek safety.”
