Investing During Crashes: When Losers Become Leaders

Introduction The Unforgiving Grind of Geometric Returns
Indexes & Sector Performance: What Just Happened & What Can History Tell Us?
Closing: How Recent Price Action Has Impacted U.S. Equity Valuations

Introduction: The Unforgiving Grind of Geometric Returns

The flow of information that erupted during the recent market correction seems designed to leave investors grasping for any form of spatial reference.¹ A version of a January piece authored by our affiliate L2 to its buy- side partners can be found here: Why Market Neutral Now. In it we observed that valuations were in the 99th percentile, recent years’ market returns well above historical norms, complacency high and that history indicated such a confluence of circumstances would generate negative outcomes for investors.

Our January work was not predicting a crash and by no means is this piece any different – Kailash is not making a macro call. As we readily conceded in the piece above, we doubted that we or anyone could predict the catalyst for the next disruption. As for today, the world watches as exploding unemployment, drastic demand destruction and a long-overdue² reckoning in corporate debt markets collides with a wall of money from central banks and governments around the world. This paper uses sector performance to highlight what just happened, what history might teach us about sectors, and how the world looks today vs. our piece in January noted above.

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Figure 1 below shows that in just over 20 trading sessions three full years of gains in equities evaporated. Kailash would note that the exact same effect can be observed in debt markets. Using HYG and LQD as proxies for High Yield and Investment Grade bonds, the total returns, as seen here, were even worse.

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SERVICES

As a reminder for our Financial Advisors: our models are available on a continuous basis, and most have been in production for over a decade. If you are looking for simple, concentrated, low turnover, and tax efficient model portfolios we would like to talk with you. KCR also offers a wide range of easy-to-use but sophisticated tools. Our toolkits can help identify mispriced stocks with the best and worst risk/reward characteristics, estimate a stock’s duration and warn you when a company is engaging in low-quality accounting. Over the last 12 years, KCR has built and offers time-tested and class-leading products built by experienced and proven money managers for fixed to low prices.
Kailash Capital Research, LLC ’s sister company, L2 Asset Management, runs market neutral, long/short, large-cap, and mid-cap long-only portfolios with a value and quality bias. L2 employs a highly disciplined investment process characterized by moderate concentration, low turnover, high tax efficiency, and low fees. While nobody can predict the future, we believe the recent resurgence in risk-adjusted returns seen across all products is the beginning of what may be a long period where speculation is punished, and prudence and patience rewarded.

ADDITIONAL READING

The topics discussed in this article are aimed at seasoned professionals, as such, we have included some extra for anyone seeking out more information related to the topics above.

Disclaimer

The information, data, analyses, and opinions presented herein (a) do not constitute investment advice, (b) are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not, individually or collectively, an offer to buy or sell a security, (c) are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate, and (d) are subject to change without notice. Kailash Capital Research, LLC and its affiliates (collectively, “Kailash Capital Research, LLC ”) shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information herein may not be reproduced or retransmitted in any manner without the prior written consent of Kailash Capital Research, LLC . In preparing the information, data, analyses, and opinions presented herein, Kailash Capital Research, LLC has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable. Kailash Capital Research, LLC , however, does not perform an audit or seeks independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives. Kailash Capital Research, LLC and its affiliates do not provide tax, legal, or accounting advice. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for tax, legal, or accounting advice. You should consult your tax, legal, and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction. © 2021 Kailash Capital Research, LLC – All rights reserved.

Nothing herein shall limit or restrict the right of affiliates of Kailash Capital Research, LLC to perform investment management or advisory services for any other persons or entities. Furthermore, nothing herein shall limit or restrict affiliates of Kailash Capital Research, LLC from buying, selling or trading securities or other investments for their own accounts or for the accounts of their clients. Affiliates of Kailash Capital Research, LLC may at any time have, acquire, increase, decrease or dispose of the securities or other investments referenced in this publication. Kailash Capital Research, LLC shall have no obligation to recommend securities or investments in this publication as result of its affiliates’ investment activities for their own accounts or for the accounts of their clients.