Stocks Reducing Debt & Earning Abnormal Profits

Prior Management Behavior & Outcomes
Momentum, Credit Quality & Size, Helping Identify Future Outperformers
Putting It All Together: Stock Selection

Prior Management Behavior & Outcomes

As explained in Part I of Activism Lite, we believe that the correlation of debt reduction with high excess returns creates a credible construct for investors to pursue with corporate management. This combination seemed particularly effective when paired with valuation as defined by FCF/EV. Our findings show that ultimately a company’s willingness to pay down debt may signal confidence in the sustainability of profits. When corporate management at high-debt firms create narratives infused with earnings growth based on synergy-rich acquisitions or product expansions, investors may be wise to consider the potential benefits of debt reduction instead.

While we believe that simply working in the least expensive component of the FCF/EV universe among high-debt companies and attempting to find stable cash flows and friendly management is an excellent idea, we decided to try shrinking the universe of stocks while improving efficacy. We began the research process with the idea that firms that had reduced (or added) debt in the prior year might be an excellent signal as to what their managements intended to do in the current year. Our analysis did not disappoint.

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In Fig. 1 below, we show the distribution of firms based on their prior-year’s change in debt. Firms that reduced debt in the prior year were much more likely to reduce debt again (ending up in tercile one), while firms that added the most debt in the prior year were far more likely to add debt again.

Figure 1 – Companies that Pay Down Debt Are More Likely to Do So Again

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ADDITIONAL READING

The topics discussed in this article are aimed at seasoned professionals, as such, we have included some extra for anyone seeking out more information related to the topics above.

Disclaimer

The information, data, analyses, and opinions presented herein (a) do not constitute investment advice, (b) are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not, individually or collectively, an offer to buy or sell a security, (c) are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate, and (d) are subject to change without notice. Kailash Capital, LLC and its affiliates (collectively, “Kailash Capital”) shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information herein may not be reproduced or retransmitted in any manner without the prior written consent of Kailash Capital. In preparing the information, data, analyses, and opinions presented herein, Kailash Capital has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable. Kailash Capital, however, does not perform an audit or seeks independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives. Kailash Capital and its affiliates do not provide tax, legal, or accounting advice. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for tax, legal, or accounting advice. You should consult your tax, legal, and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction. © 2021 Kailash Capital, LLC – All rights reserved.

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