Charts for the Curious

April 14, 2020

The Cheap, Expensive and Unfortunate (Stocks > 10x P/S)

December 7, 2023|

History rhymes. Doesn’t repeat. Valuation doesn’t matter until it is all that matters. Stocks valued at 10x price to sales (P/S) are difficult to justify. The CEO of Sun Microsystems made the merciless math of 10x P/S easy to understand after the bubble imploded. We have reprinted his quote here again for the sake of convenience.

Warren Buffett: Bond Investing, Private Markets & Complacency

August 3, 2023|

"The private credit market has grown to the size where there is no edge other than the fake attraction of not having to mark their assets accurately and showing artificially low volatility. The space is competing for the same deals as the public market. So, the original concept where it was smaller specialty deals and the lenders had to pay up and give special terms is simply gone.

External Obsolescence: Tech Investors’ Newest Nightmare?

June 8, 2023|

The definition of external obsolescence principally applies to real estate. One real-estate firm explains that “...external obsolescence is something outside of a property, off-site, that negatively affects its value. Definitions of external obsolescence often include the chilling term “incurable,” and examples are trains, traffic, commercial properties, institutional properties, geologic conditions, and industrial installations.”

The Death of the Dollar: Bitcoin, Gold & their Miners

April 27, 2023|

“The Fed has shown some mettle over the last year but historically I would not say [Federal Reserve chair] Jay Powell is a profile in courage … one area I’m comfortable is I’m short the US Dollar” -Stanley Druckenmiller “Bitcoin is a store of inflation and a hedge against value.” -Anon

Equity Valuation Methods Matter

March 16, 2023|

Happy Friday everyone! This piece is going to be brief, brutal, and to the point. Over the past two years, some readers have complained that the cheapest stocks that dotted our top-ranked companies “were at the peak” and destined to collapse. Counter to intuition, some have come to believe expensive stocks are safer than cheap stocks. For many of these names, earnings did not peak, the world did not end, and many of these stocks ran higher...

Market Froth Abates: Lessons from a Historical Speculation

February 3, 2023|

KCR is not surprised at the amount of Wall Street shills claiming they can predict the Federal Reserve Chairman’s next moves. Equally unsurprising is the market’s overwhelming interest in how market conditions might shift based on a leveling off or outright reduction in interest rates. The thinking goes like this: the stock market bubble that drove low-quality stocks to unsustainable levels could come roaring back to life if only the Fed would...

KCR Equity’s Best Charts from 2022: All Charts Updated!

January 31, 2023|

We recently posted a year end piece summarizing KCR’s work from 2022. There were so many blistering charts that we broke the recap into two parts. The first, Short Term Stock Speculators Beat a Hasty Retreat, and A Basic Industries Boom & the Return of the Real Economy as the follow-up. When we posted our 2022 year-in-review we highlighted the charts as they were...

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