Quantamental Investing: A Brief Primer on KCR’s Toolkits
In our Chart for the Curious about Apple Computer, we document the challenges faced by investors who follow forecasters. For those seeking compelling evidence based on robust quantitative methods, please see our White Paper The Persistence of Profits. That piece builds on work done by a legendary professor of behavioral finance...
Apple II Flashback: The Fantasy of Predicting the Future
Why is it that some of the most influential CEOs and Fund Managers only predict “exponential returns” and bright futures for some of the market’s most expensive stocks?
AAP Stock Chart: Did You Miss a Profitable Secular Grower?
• The chart shows the performance of aftermarket automotive products supply and distribution firm Advanced Auto Parts, over the last 3 years • Since 2018 the stock has risen over 50% • We have been proponents of investing in companies that make what you need, not what you want, particularly in times like today, as explained in our...
Stocks Most like Enron Today, Free Enron Hat & Summary of Disaster
Remembering the Risks of “The Smartest Guys in the Room”. We recently put out a two-part summary of Bethany McLean and Peter Elkind’s brilliant book The Smartest Guys in the Room. In an earlier piece, we quoted legendary financial historian John Kenneth Galbraith, who quipped that investors’ memories last “...at a maximum, no more than 20 years.” The KCR team agrees.
Glamour Stocks: Investing vs Gambling – 2021 Speculation in Review
2021 has been a terrific year for KCR. For like-minded investors who believe in buying high-quality companies at reasonable prices, 2021 was a much-needed reprieve. We would like to offer our deepest thanks to all of our subscribers and wish you a happy and healthy New Year!
ARKF Dividend vs. XLF Dividend: To Pay or Be Paid
Bloomberg’s Lu Wang wrote a piece on the 7th noting that “....risk-taking traders roared back to life….where frenzied selling eventually gives way to a bounce whose size defies logical expectations.”
Speculators in Stock Markets: The Price of Quick Profits
Bloomberg’s Lu Wang wrote a piece on the 7th noting that “....risk-taking traders roared back to life….where frenzied selling eventually gives way to a bounce whose size defies logical expectations.”
10 Year Rolling Returns: A Warning?
*The chart shows the rolling 10-year period returns since 1800 *Where available we show the Shiller PE peak and trough valuations *The chart shows a reasonably consistent pattern of 10-year runs followed by dismal decades...
SNAP Price Predictions: Are you an Investor or Speculator?
The chart shows the performance of social media company SNAP over the last three years • Since the stock’s most recent peak on August 31, 2021, it has stalled, falling -31% in a +2% tape...
The Costliest Stocks: A Lifetime Earnings Analysis
This piece is based on academic research done in-part by KCR’s expert in behavioral finance. Bhojraj & Co-Authors Provide Compelling Proof that “Price is What You Pay, Value is What You Get”
Are Clean Tech Stocks a Short?
This week’s “Chart for the Curious” follows up on our CFTC from last week and our piece on Andrei Shleifer’s legendary book on Behavioral Finance. In those pieces, we discussed how investors piled into Gold after the GFC implosion, which ended up being precisely the wrong time to do so.
Investor’s Long Term Stock Forecasts: A Perfect Path to Poverty?
This week’s “Chart for the Curious” offers less optical intrigue and requires more “Curiosity” than our normal Friday missives. The piece reads more like our typical Quick Takes. Having ...
