Identifying the Rare Firms With Big Profits, Low Prices and a History Of Flying Higher+

 Flying Fortress Stocks: Making Money with a Margin of Safety

The legendary B-17, the third most produced bomber of all time, earned its name “The Flying Fortress” due to the plane’s ability to withstand severe damage and still find its way home. The plane’s potent defensive capabilities made it a top choice for dangerous daylight bombing missions. Equally important, however was its ability to soar to high altitudes. [1]

As warnings of rank speculation by legendary investors are ignored, our team has decided to keep things simple. Last week we published a Quick Take highlighting that the market cap of firms trading at less than 10x earnings had hit the lowest level in 40 years of stock market history.

This piece seeks to provide a more potent screen with historical context to help investors looking for a bit of deep value in their portfolios. To make the cut, the firms need to have a market cap of $1bn or greater, have a 10% free cash flow yield, be investment grade, and growing revenues at 5% or more.

Impossible? Almost. As Figure 1 below shows, there are not many firms meeting these stringent criteria. There are plenty of folks on social media encouraging you to embrace 10x price to sales multiples. We’ll stick to our knitting, keep it simple, and try and turn over some compelling stocks shunned or ignored by investors.

Summary:

  • Historically, investing in firms meeting these strict criteria generated outsized returns for investors
  • The performance of these firms generates high absolute returns
  • These firms also provided potent downside protection in years when the indexes suffered losses

Due to their potent offensive and defensive characteristics, we dubbed them “Flying Fortresses.”

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Flying Fortress Stocks: Playing Offense & Absolute Returns

As we have documented extensively, on nearly every metric we are aware of the market is expensive.  On the most reliable metric we use, indexes are beyond the levels seen at the peak of the dot.com bubble.

Fig. 2 below shows the absolute batting averages for our Flying Fortress Stocks (FFS), the S&P 500, and the R2500.  Over the last 40 years you can see that:

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The information, data, analyses, and opinions presented herein (a) do not constitute investment advice, (b) are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not, individually or collectively, an offer to buy or sell a security, (c) are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate, and (d) are subject to change without notice. Kailash Capital, LLC and its affiliates (collectively, “Kailash Capital”) shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information herein may not be reproduced or retransmitted in any manner without the prior written consent of Kailash Capital. In preparing the information, data, analyses, and opinions presented herein, Kailash Capital has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable. Kailash Capital, however, does not perform an audit or seeks independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives. Kailash Capital and its affiliates do not provide tax, legal, or accounting advice. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for tax, legal, or accounting advice. You should consult your tax, legal, and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction. © 2020 Kailash Capital, LLC – All rights reserved.