The Great Growth Run & a Peek at Forsaken Dividend Stocks
Researchers in behavioral finance have documented the following three items: • Human beings have a nasty habit of extrapolating trends • Even worse, the longer a trend has been going on, the more likely we are to extrapolate it…. • …. which is terrible because the longer a trend has gone on, the more likely it is to revert!
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KCR’s Top Charts of 2023 Updated
Every year since the launch of our website, we have posted a piece reviewing KCR’s work from the prior year. Today’s post continues that tradition. We would like to thank our rapidly growing list of readers for their support, engagement, and thoughtful kindness. KCR has updated all the charts below through December 31, 2023.
Monopoly Money: Big Business, Barbie & the Benefits of Diversification
“Small, independent, decentralized business of the kind that built up our country, of the kind that made our country great, first, is fast disappearing, and second, is being made dependent upon monster concentration.” “I think that we are approaching a point where
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The Cheap, Expensive and Unfortunate (Stocks > 10x P/S)
History rhymes. Doesn’t repeat. Valuation doesn’t matter until it is all that matters. Stocks valued at 10x price to sales (P/S) are difficult to justify. The CEO of Sun Microsystems made the merciless math of 10x P/S easy to understand after the dot.com bubble imploded. We have reprinted his quote here again for the sake of convenience.
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Everything AI: An Update on Machine Learning & Multiple Expansion
In our June piece External Obsolescence: Tech Investors’ Newest Nightmare, we explained how the consensus view on AI stocks might simply be misplaced confidence that had sent multiples soaring. We highlighted that investors had anointed Microsoft, Apple, Google, Nvidia, and Amazon as the “sure-fire” winners of all things AI.
The Anxiety Opportunity from FOMO Sufferers
FOMO includes both the perception of missing out, which triggers anxiety, and compulsive behaviors … it is closely related to the fear of social exclusion or ostracism, which existed long before social media. -Natalie Christine Dattilo, Ph.D, Harvard Medical School, 2023 Recall that the second line of defense of the efficient markets theory is that the irrational investors,
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