Index Funds the Most Crowded Trade?

In our last paper “The Collision of Arithmetic & Over-Optimism”, Kailash presented a compelling chart demonstrating that investor obsession with the 25 largest growth firms had driven them to record valuations. The chart below shows that the odds of picking a stock that beats the index has only been lower at the peaks of the Internet Bubble and Nifty Fifty mania. It also reveals that shortly after moments like these, the opportunity to outperform the index moves dramatically in your favor.

 

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The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein (a) do not constitute investment advice, (b) are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not, individually or collectively, an offer to buy or sell a security, (c) are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate, and (d) are subject to change without notice. Kailash Capital, LLC and its affiliates (collectively, “Kailash Capital”) shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information herein may not be reproduced or retransmitted in any manner without the prior written consent of Kailash Capital. 

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Kailash Capital and its affiliates do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction.