AI, Oil and Gas: Misadventures in Capital Allocation
Our recent pieces, How to Value Tech Companies and External Obsolescence: Tech Investors’ Newest Nightmare?, discussed how AI algorithms, big data, and machine learning could be undermining the moats of tech stocks that now sport multiples last seen during the dot.com mania. We noted that our empirically
Mega Cap Stocks: Making Money in Large Cap Growth
“Didn’t we just learn that pouring trillions of dollars into technologies with uncertain profit profiles we didn’t fully understand was a bad idea? Tech investors seem to be most aggressive when they have the least visibility on the IP and valuation provides them with no margin of safety.” -Zac M., KCR Subscriber...
Alternative Assets & the 60/40 Portfolio Crisis
This paper will demonstrate the following: 1. 60/40 Asset Allocation models have come under crushing stress over the last several months 2. Combined, popular alternatives like private equity, private credit & venture capital strategies are often merely leveraged, high-cost variants of “60/40” with lagged reporting, in our view
Earnings Quality and Stock Returns with Value as a Tailwind
In April last year, KCR penned What is Accounting Quality and Why it Matters. The work discussed the abysmal state of financial reporting and used our earnings quality score to demonstrate that high-quality firms trounced low-quality firms’ performance.
The Art of Stock Picking Returns
“We’ve had 40+ years where all the money went into broadband, or internet, or Netflix or the cloud and no money went into basic productive capacity…” -Robert Friedland, CEO, Ivanhoe group of companies “During the latter stage of the bull market in 1929, the public acquired a completely different attitude towards
Cash Flow to Stockholders is Defined As: Misleading?
How the Crypto-FTX-Fraud Could be Masking Epic Capital MisallocationAccounting Tools states that cash flow to stockholders is the amount of money a firm pays its equity owners. They explain that “Investors routinely compare the cash flow to stockholders to the total amount of cash flow generated by a business…”
The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions
Have Policy-Makers Given Investors a Secular Growth Story for Cyclical Stocks? Our research is empirically based and tends towards places that are uncomfortable and out-of-favor. In 2020, as investors gorged on crypto, loss-making tech and growth stocks of dubious merit..
Small Cap Investing Strategies, Large Caps & Active Management
Welcome everyone, my name is Matt Malgari. Today’s presentation is going to be an update on the bull case for high..
Inflation is Taxation without Legislation or Representation
The Cash Crucible & the Acceleration of Financial Repression - “Cash is a Legitimate Asset Class for the First Time in Decades, Investors are piling into products that shield them from losses in a rising rate environment.” So said a recent article in Bloomberg. Any headline-hailing investors “piling” into anything should trigger instant paranoia.
Safe Dividend Stocks: A Staples Update & A Brand New Bag
KCR’s systematic, evidence-based analytical and investment process is driven by the historical record. Our financial faith resides in what the data shows. Human beings have made the same mistakes in slightly different forms again and again for centuries. Stick to a low-cost, tax efficient process and winning is inevitable.
A Tight Labor Market Returns the Upper Hand to American Workers
A Tight Labor Market Returns the Upper Hand to American Workers - The always wonderful John Authers put out a recent piece on inflation. Discussing comments out of the UK, he observed, “I cannot remember a central bank of a large, industrialized country being this negative about its own economy.”
Market Neutral Strategy: Transcript & Video
At KCR, we believe in solving problems and one of the greatest issues we hear from subscribers is how to compound...